Optimal Regulation of E-cigarettes: Theory and Evidence
通过税收变化和扫描数据估计电子烟需求弹性，结合专家调查发现电子烟危害比预期大，模型模拟表明最优电子烟税高于当前水平，但在特定条件下补贴可能更优。
We model optimal e-cigarette regulation and estimate key parameters. Using tax changes and scanner data, we estimate relatively elastic demand. A demographic shift-share identification strategy suggests limited substitution between e-cigarettes and cigarettes. We field a new survey of public health experts who report that vaping is more harmful than previously believed. In our model’s average Monte Carlo simulation, these results imply optimal e-cigarette taxes are higher than recent norms. However, e-cigarette subsidies may be optimal if vaping is a stronger substitute for smoking and is safer than our experts report, or if consumers overestimate the health harms from vaping.