The macroeconomic effects of structural reforms: an empirical and model-based approach
量化了意大利近十年三项结构性改革（服务业自由化、创新激励、民事司法改革）的宏观经济效应，结合微观实证估计与动态一般均衡模型，发现改革可使本十年末GDP水平提高3.5%至8%，并对劳动力市场产生显著影响。
SUMMARY This paper quantifies the macroeconomic effects of three major structural reforms (i.e. service sector liberalizations, incentives to innovation and civil justice reforms) undertaken in Italy in the last decade. We employ a novel approach that estimates the impact of each reform on total factor productivity (TFP) and markups in an empirical micro setting and uses these estimates in a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the macroeconomic effects of the reforms. Microeconometric estimates indicate that the reforms imply a sizeable increase in TFP and a reduction in service markup. Structural model–based analysis shows that, accounting for estimation uncertainty, the increase in the level of GDP at the end of the current decade would be between 3.5% and 8%, with non-negligible effects on the labour market.