Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict
利用武器出口国与进口国的历史联系及出口国冲突参与冲击作为工具变量，发现非洲武器进口增加内部冲突可能性、单边暴力、战斗人员和平民死亡数及难民数，表明武器出口国可通过贸易影响暴力。
Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. I use historical links between arms exporters and importers, and shocks to conflict engagement of the exporters, to instrument the volume of arms imports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that arms imports in Africa increase the likelihood of internal conflict, in particular one-sided violence, the number of fighter and civilian deaths, as well as the number of refugees fleeing the country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade. Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution.