The global savings glut and the housing boom
本文通过开放经济模型，将2000-2006年美国住房繁荣分为两个阶段：2000-2002年由外国信贷供给增加（储蓄过剩）驱动，2003-2006年由国内信贷标准放松驱动，并分析了2007-2010年衰退及政府支出的稳定作用。
The U.S. housing boom from 2000 to 2006 consisted of two fundamentally different phases. An increase in foreign credit supply (a savings glut) can explain the initial countercyclical run-up in house prices from 2000 through 2002, whereas an increase in domestic credit demand –driven by a relaxation of domestic credit standards– can explain the subsequent procyclical boom phase from 2003 to 2006. A tightening of domestic credit standards can fully explain the bust from 2007 to 2010. I base these conclusions on a quantitative open economy model with housing and collateralized foreign debt. Countercyclical government spending financed by a lump sum tax stabilizes house prices, output and domestic inflation over the entire boom period, pushes the economy away from the zero lower bound, and raises domestic utility.