Disruption and Credit Markets
研究发现过去半个世纪中，创新颠覆是理解企业违约的核心因素。风投或IPO活动异常的行业，随后违约率、集团业务退出和债券收益率均上升，颠覆广泛影响各类型在位企业，但大型低杠杆企业除外。
ABSTRACT We show that over the past half‐century, innovative disruptions were central to understanding corporate defaults. In a given year, industries experiencing abnormally high venture capital or initial public offering activity subsequently see higher default rates, higher segment exits by conglomerates, and higher yields on bonds issued by the firms in these industries. Overall, we find that disruption is a broad phenomenon, negatively affecting incumbent firms across the spectrum of age, valuation, and levers, with the exception of very large and low‐leverage firms, in line with our central hypothesis.