Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach
研究了前瞻指引如何影响预期，通过构建包含前瞻指引及其属性、央行预测和量化宽松的央行数据，结合调查数据，估计了前瞻指引变化后预测者平均将利率预测修正5个基点。
Summary How forward guidance influences expectations is not fully understood. To study this, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I describe how, when, and where forward guidance has worked. I estimate that forecasters revised their interest rate forecasts in the intended direction by five basis points on average following a forward guidance change. I provide estimates for The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Sveriges Riksbank, and Norges Bank.