Reputational recovery under political instability: Public debt in Portugal, 1641–83
研究葡萄牙在解放战争期间如何通过债务可信度恢复声誉，实现低债务比率和低利率，为战争融资提供支持，对理解战争融资、债务管理和国家构建有参考价值。
Abstract This article examines the reputation recovery of Portugal's public debt during the war of liberation against the former Habsburg ruler. Using novel datasets on long‐ and short‐term debt and nominal interest rates, this study provides evidence that the sovereign borrower used debt credibility to build a pact of regime in a revolutionary context with implications for financing the war. The Portuguese kings followed an implicit budget balance rule as a reputational scheme, which made Portugal an exceptional case of military success with a low debt‐to‐GDP ratio and low interest rates. These conclusions contribute to the literature in various attributes of war finance, debt management, and state‐making by showing that default avoidance could be as important to military success as fiscal capacity.