Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production
该研究使用改进的计量方法，发现气温每升高1°C全球牛肉产量平均减少9.7%，降水增加对热带和温带国家影响相反，并预测气候变化将导致未来产量进一步下降。
Attempts to analyze the effect of weather shocks on livestock production have been carried out using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or the cross-sectional (Ricardian) method. However, these methodologies are fraught with obvious shortcomings, such as omitted variable bias, amongst others. This paper, therefore, re-examines the relationship between weather changes and global livestock production using an established econometric strategy that takes care of the pitfalls inherent in the conventional approaches. Using country-level data and a variety of specifications, we find that a 1 °C increase in temperature will lead to a 9.7% reduction in global beef production on average. These adverse effects are amplified in hot, poor, and agriculture-dependent countries. Besides, we find that a marginal increase in annual precipitation would lead to a 2.1% increase in beef production in tropical countries but a 1.9% decrease in temperate ones. Also, our forecasts show that climate change will reduce animal output by a further 20% in the mid-century and an additional 40% by the end of the century assuming no adaptation other than the degree of adaptation observed in the historical period.