The political effects of trade with Japan in the 1980s
研究了1976-1992年间美国对日贸易竞争对总统选举投票的影响，发现进口竞争在1976-1984年显著降低了共和党候选人的得票率，而出口和外国直接投资对投票结果无影响。
Abstract The 1974 trade act substantially increased the executive branch's authority in trade negotiations through the granting of fast‐track and Section 301 authority. This paper evaluates the effect on U.S. voting behavior resulting from trade with Japan over 1976–1992 time period. To capture U.S. trade exposures to Japan, we develop the Bartik index from Autor et al. (2013) for import competition with Japan and show that local exposure to import competition had statistically significant negative impacts on Republican presidential candidates over the 1976–1984 period. Although the second Reagan administration used Section 301 to open Japan's markets and Japanese firms shifted production to the United States, job‐creation effects of exports and foreign direct investment did not have any influence on voting outcomes.