Identifying Beliefs in Continuous-Action Dynamic Models: An Application to the U.S. SO2 Allowance Market
提出一种在连续行动动态模型中识别企业主观信念的新方法，应用于美国酸雨计划中的二氧化硫配额市场，发现电力公司低估了配额价格波动，导致合规成本增加相当于利润的11.2%。
Abstract I propose a new method of identifying firms’ subjective beliefs in dynamic models. In settings where actions are continuous and substitutable in contributing to an endogenous state, I show how beliefs about exogenous state transitions can be separately identified from static payoffs. Applying this method to identifying beliefs about future SO2 allowance prices in the U.S. Acid Rain Program, I find that electric utilities underestimate the movements in the allowance price, leading to compliance strategies that respond too slowly to changing market conditions. Biased beliefs increase an average utility’s compliance cost by equivalently 11.2% of its profits.