Peter J. Diggle’s Discussion Contribution to the Papers in Session 3 of the Royal Statistical Society’s Special Topic Meeting on Covid-19 Transmission: 11 June 2021
讨论了在局部层面估计易感人群比例的困难，指出即使有高质量调查数据，无症状病例数也难以准确估计，且易感性并非二元变量。
Several authors have mentioned the importance of allowing for the susceptible proportion of the population. This seems to me especially difficult to estimate, especially at a local, that is, spatially disaggregated, level. Firstly, while we do know local vaccination numbers, accurate estimation of asymptomatic or mildly asymptomatic case-numbers is problematic, even with the availability of data from high-quality randomised prevalence surveys such as the REACT study (Riley et al., 2021). Secondly, susceptibility is not even a binary value.