Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆
研究了美国、欧元区和英国近期通胀的驱动因素，发现美国通胀冲击对欧元区和英国有强烈且一致的溢出效应，而欧元区的影响较小，英国几乎没有影响。
We investigate the drivers of the recent inflation in three currency areas: the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. To do so, we use a VAR set-up to examine the nature of the shocks that underpinned the recent inflation. We apply-two methods to calculate shocks – the standard Cholesky decomposition and a new method that captures more realistic shocks by solving the VAR backwards. We also use spatial modelling to investigate cross-country inflation spillovers. We find the inflationary shocks in the United States are transmitted to the euro area and the United Kingdom in a powerful and consistent way. The euro area transmits inflation to the other regions but to a lesser extent, while the inflation in the United Kingdom has little effect on the other two regions.