Prediction and confidence intervals of willingness-to-pay for mixed logit models
针对混合Logit模型中支付意愿的随机性，提出基于Delta方法的抽样分布估计技术，兼顾偏好异质性与抽样误差，并通过蒙特卡洛模拟验证其与Krinsky-Robb方法效果相当且计算更高效。
Heterogeneity in agents’ preferences is generally analysed through mixed logit models, which assume taste parameters are distributed in the population according to a certain mixing distribution. As a result, if the utility function is linear in attributes, the willingness to pay is the ratio of two random parameters and is itself random. This paper proposes a technique built on the Delta method, partly analytical and partly based on simulations, to obtain the sampling distribution of the willingness to pay, accounting for both heterogeneity and sampling error. The paper contributes to the literature by: (i) redressing some imprecisions in Bliemer and Rose (2013) that produce biased results; (ii) proposing a faster estimation process, compared to the Krinsky and Robb (1986, 1990) method that, relying on simulation only, proves computationally more demanding; (iii) comparing the performance of different methods using both synthetic and real data sets. The paper shows, via a Monte Carlo study, that the method we develop and the Krinsky and Robb one produce similar results, while outperforming that proposed by Bliemer and Rose.