The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions
通过贝叶斯面板向量自回归模型，估计意大利北部和南部地区在公共支出、收入和投资冲击下的财政乘数，发现区域间乘数存在错位，对地方和中央政策制定有参考价值。
This paper estimates fiscal multipliers resulting from shocks to current public expenditure, total public revenues, and public investment in Italian regions by accounting for the structural heterogeneity between Northern and Southern economies. The estimation is carried out by estimating a Bayesian panel vector autoregression, where the structural shocks are identified using sign restrictions suggested by economic theory. The results shed new light on regional fiscal shocks’ magnitude and propagation. Moreover, a misalignment of fiscal multipliers is revealed, possibly policy relevant to local and central authorities.