Getting the ROC into Sync
揭示了ROC曲线与同步性指标在判断二元事件一致性上的紧密联系，并利用矩估计方法识别和估计全局一致性程度，同时考虑了序列自相关对推断的影响。
Judging the conformity of binary events in macroeconomics and finance has often been done with indices that measure synchronization. In recent years, the use of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has become popular for this task. This article shows that the ROC and synchronization approaches are closely related, and each can be derived from a decision-making framework. Furthermore, the resulting global measures of the degree of conformity can be identified and estimated using the standard method of moments estimators. The impact of serial dependence in the underlying series upon inferences can therefore be allowed for. Such serial correlation is common in macroeconomic and financial data.