Climate Policy and Resource Extraction with Variable Markups and Imperfect Substitutes
研究在不完全替代和内生市场势力下，预期未来需求冲击对资源开采路径的影响，基于OPEC数据发现内生加成调整可大幅减少预期气候政策导致的跨期碳泄漏。
In a resource extraction model that features imperfect substitution and endogenous market power, we analytically characterize the effect of anticipated future demand shocks on the resource extraction path. We show that the resource owner’s market share and reserves-to-extraction ratio are sufficient to calculate the supply response under constant elasticity of substitution between alternative energy resources. The analytical characterization of the extraction response allows us to conduct scenario analyses based on available oil market data. Applying data on OPEC, we find a relatively small increase in current extraction due to an anticipated decrease in the price of alternative energy resources, which implies that endogenous markup adjustments of OPEC countries largely reduce the adverse consequences of anticipated climate policies due to intertemporal carbon leakage.