Explaining and correcting trade imbalances between the Northern and Southern Eurozone: An empirical investigation
将南欧和北欧欧元区国家分别聚合为两组，研究财政、投资和竞争力三个渠道对贸易失衡的解释和纠正作用，发现北方财政赤字增加比南方财政紧缩更有效，而南方汇率贬值长期会恶化贸易平衡。
Abstract In this paper we take a novel approach to examining the trade imbalances between the Southern Eurozone countries and the Northern Eurozone countries by aggregating them into a Southern Group and Northern Group. We then explore three possible causes of the trade imbalances, which are the fiscal channel, the investment channel and the competitiveness channel. We find that all three channels are important in explaining the emergence and correction of trade imbalances. In particular, we find that an increase in fiscal deficits in the North are twice as effective in reducing trade imbalances than fiscal consolidation in the South. By contrast, increased investment in the North has a similar impact to reduced investment in the South in correcting the trade imbalances. Finally, we find that a depreciation of the South's real exchange rate is associated with a long run deterioration in the Southern Group's trade balance suggesting that the South needs to seek non‐price competitiveness channels to address its trade imbalances.