Climate change and the mortality of the unborn
利用匈牙利1984-2018年行政数据，估计温度对每周自然流产率的影响，发现高温显著增加流产风险，而低温略微降低风险，并预测气候变化将导致21世纪流产率上升。
Although previous studies have examined the association between temperature exposure and pregnancy losses (mainly focusing on the risk of stillbirth), causal estimates are still missing. The literature also lacks projections on the impacts of climate change. Using Hungarian administrative data spanning 1984 to 2018, this paper estimates the effect of temperature on the weekly spontaneous pregnancy loss rate. We show that, compared to a mild temperature, heat causes a substantial increase in the risk of pregnancy loss, whereas cold temperatures slightly decrease it. These impacts are not due to near-term displacement of some pregnancy losses but represent changes in the pregnancy outcomes. Combining the estimated effects with outputs of thirty climate models implies that climate change will increase the spontaneous pregnancy loss rate in the 21st century. The risk of pregnancy loss will be especially elevated during summer.