Optimism, divergence of investors’ opinions, and the long-run underperformance of IPOs
研究了首次公开募股（IPO）后长期表现不佳的原因，发现投资者乐观情绪和意见分歧导致首日价格高估，但只有乐观情绪能显著解释长期表现不佳。
The long-run underperformance of initial public offerings (IPOs) suggests that aftermarket prices are overvalued. According to the theory of heterogeneous beliefs and short-sale constraints, the aftermarket price of IPOs is overvalued; in addition, their performance deteriorates when the mean level of optimism and degree of divergence of investors’ opinions increase. I examine this phenomenon by estimating the mean and divergence of investor opinion distribution by focusing on Japanese auction-method IPOs. According to the results, both optimism and divergence cause the overvaluation of IPO’s first-day market price; however, only the mean level of optimism is statistically significant in explaining post-IPO underperformance.