次优概率加权

Second-best probability weighting

Games and Economic Behavior · 2022
被引 8
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

提出概率加权可能是对已有收益评估偏差的补偿,倒S形概率加权是S形收益估值的另一面,纠正概率扭曲而保持价值函数不变可能适得其反。

Abstract

Non-linear probability weighting is an integral part of descriptive theories of choice under risk such as prospect theory. But why do these objective errors in information processing exist? Should we try to help individuals overcome their mistake of overweighting small and underweighting large probabilities? In this paper, we argue that probability weighting can be seen as a compensation for preexisting biases in evaluating payoffs. In particular, inverse S-shaped probability weighting is a flipside of S-shaped payoff valuation. Probability distortions may thus have survived as a second-best solution to a fitness maximization problem, and it can be counter-productive to correct them while keeping the value function unchanged.

概率权重前景理论次优解价值函数