Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID‐19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany
基于2019年1月起对德国公民的在线调查，研究发现新冠疫情引发的深度衰退降低了欧洲央行通胀目标的可信度，且德国人预期中期通胀将远高于2%。
Abstract Using the exact wording of the European Central Bank's definition of price stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long‐term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation target. Our results indicate that credibility has decreased in our sample period, particularly in the course of the deep recession implied by the Covid‐19 pandemic. Interestingly, even though inflation rates in Germany have been clearly below 2% for several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2% over the medium term. We investigate how inflation expectations and the impact of the pandemic depend on personal characteristics including age, gender, education, and political attitude.