City subcenter as a regional development policy: Impact on the property market
研究北京副中心政策对房地产市场的影响，发现政策宣布后副中心房价首年上涨10.5%，两年后稳定在约20%，且房价增长随距行政中心距离增加而急剧下降。
Abstract The aim of this study is to perform a locally specific investigation of a polycentric development policy through the lens of the property market. The capital city of China, Beijing, adopted a subcenter program for the purpose of developing a new economic growth pole in the suburbs through the redistribution of administrative and economic resources. Herein, we exploit spatial and temporal differencing in microproperty transaction data to address the issue of nonrandom selection of the site for developing the subcenter. The results show that in the first year after announcing the subcenter program, property prices in the subcenter rose by 10.5%, stabilizing at approximately 20% after 2 years of continuous increase. Moreover, property price growth decreases sharply with increased distance from the new administrative center in the subcenter, which will host tens of thousands of civil servants under the subcenter program. In response to the subcenter‐induced demand shock, locations with elastically supplied housing have experienced greater population growth and weaker appreciation in property prices. Although strict purchase restrictions have helped stabilize the subcenter's property market to some extent, the fever has spread to adjacent markets. The specific geography of property market dynamics provides an important channel to evaluate the impact of the subcenter program and offers insight regarding the development of tactics to optimize subcenter outcomes.