Financial Consequences of the Belt and Road Initiative
利用欧亚铁路隧道开通作为准自然实验，发现接入一带一路货运路线的国家发行了大量高收益债券，这些债务主要由国内吸收，挤出了企业资本但未转化为基础设施投资。
Abstract China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to create economic corridors encompassing two-thirds of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP. Using the inauguration of a railway tunnel between Europe and Asia as a quasi-natural experiment, I demonstrate that countries gaining access to BRI’s freight routes issue significant amounts of high-yield debt. This debt is largely absorbed domestically, reallocating capital away from firms without translating into infrastructure investment. State-owned enterprises appear insulated from tightening financial conditions. I document mechanisms involving political alignment with China, exposure to trade policy uncertainty, and topographic fit based on historical Orient Express routes.