Government Debt and Capital Accumulation in an Era of Low Interest Rates
探讨全球实际利率下降的原因，认为储蓄、增长和加价趋势可解释利率下降，并分析在此环境下政府债务对预算、债务滚动和资本积累的影响。
This essay discusses the reasons for and implications of the decline in real interest rates around the world over the past several decades. It suggests that the decline in interest rates is largely explicable from trends in saving, growth, and markups. In this environment, greater government debt is likely not problematic from a budgetary standpoint. But a Ponzi-like scheme of perpetual debt rollover might fail, and such a failure would make a bad state of the world even worse. In addition, even if a perpetual debt rollover succeeds, the increased debt could still crowd out capital, reducing labor productivity, real wages, and consumption.