The Short and the Long of It: Stock‐Flow Matching in the US Housing Market
研究发现美国房屋挂牌后两周内售出的概率在2006至2020年间大幅下降，且快销与慢销在周期中表现不同；一个校准的存量-流量匹配模型能定量复现这些差异。
ABSTRACT From 2006 until 2020, the probability of selling a house in the U.S. declined sharply after listing for 2 weeks. Moreover, sales within the first 2 weeks of listing (“quick sales”) and sales happening afterward (“slow sales”) behaved differently over the housing cycle. The probability and associated price of a quick sale recovered from the slump sooner, faster, and more prominently than a slow sale. This paper demonstrates that a calibrated stock‐flow matching model not only generates quantitatively consistent sales, prices, listings, and time on the market but also captures distinctions between fast and slow sales over the housing cycle.