Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia
研究了索马里青年党叛乱期间交通路线冲突对偏远地区玉米价格的影响，发现冲突风险本身就会推高价格，而增加替代路线可缓解但效果有限。
Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia’s al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items.