Conflict and Intergroup Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis
研究2014年俄乌冲突如何通过破坏群体间信任减少贸易，发现乌克兰族裔俄罗斯人比例低的地区对俄贸易下降更严重，且受影响企业业绩下滑并转向其他市场。
Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas.