The Reliability of Delphi Surveys and Benefit Transfer to Predict Outcomes of Contingent Valuation Surveys
通过比较德尔菲条件价值评估和效益转移方法对挪威家庭支付意愿的预测结果，检验这两种方法在评估全球公共物品非使用价值时的可靠性。
Benefit transfer (BT) and valuation experts’ assessments in Delphi contingent valuation (CV) surveys have been used as an alternative to prohibitively expensive worldwide CV surveys to obtain estimates of total nonuse values of global public goods. We test the reliability of international BT and Delphi CV estimates by comparing them to a population CV survey of Norwegian households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for Amazon rainforest preservation plans. The Delphi CV method predicts WTP and scope effects in line with conventional BT, motivating further testing of the Delphi CV method as a time- and cost-saving way of valuing global public goods.