Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices, and Net Exports in a Currency Union
利用12国1999-2018年产品与行业数据,发现政府支出削减仅降低低进口含量产品和低出口份额行业的价格与工资,导致净出口通过减少进口而非增加出口改善,标准小国开放模型无法解释,但政府支出本土偏好和部门间要素价格摩擦可改进模型拟合。
The hoped-for silver lining of euro-area austerity programs was to raise external competitiveness and improve current accounts. Using product- and industry-level data for 12 countries over the period 1999–2018, we show that reductions in government spending reduce prices and wages but only for products with low import content and industries with low export shares. This leads to asymmetric expenditure switching, with net exports improving through lower imports rather than higher exports. The standard small-open-economy model fails to rationalize these findings, but home bias in government spending and frictions preventing factor prices from equalizing across sectors considerably improve the fit of the model.