Getting Back to the Source: A New Approach to Measuring Ex Ante Litigation Risk Using Plaintiff-Lawyer Views of SEC Filings
利用原告律师对SEC文件的关注度作为代理变量，衡量事前诉讼风险，发现该指标能预测未来诉讼和股票市场结果，并揭示原告律师的案件选择过程。
Abstract This study introduces a new measure of ex ante litigation risk using scrutiny of SEC filings by the source of securities litigation (plaintiffs’ lawyers) to reduce measurement error, relative to existing measures. We show that plaintiff-lawyer views proxy for the largely unobservable factors that make firms more likely to face litigation risk. Lagged views precede the public bad news revelation that triggers litigation and predicts future realized litigation risk (i.e., securities class actions filings and plaintiff-lawyer investigations) and stock market outcomes. Finally, we provide new insights into the plaintiff-lawyer case selection process that otherwise cannot be observed.