Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment
构建并估计了一个包含内生贸易失衡和劳动力市场摩擦的多国多部门一般均衡模型，发现中国冲击解释了2000-2014年美国制造业28%的下降，是假设贸易平衡模型的1.65倍，但服务业就业上升使总失业影响微乎其微。
Abstract We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.