Technological Uncertainty and Catch-Up Patterns: Insights of Four Chinese Manufacturing Sectors
研究了中国四个制造业部门（通用设备、制药、家电、电子设备）在追赶周期不同阶段中，技术不确定性如何影响过程模式，发现早期以预测性或解释性模式为主，晚期则出现收敛与发散混合模式。
Existing literature highlights the relevance of technology uncertainty and processes in latecomers’ catch-up but largely ignores the potential interplay between the two as well as the catch-up cycle. Thus, the purpose of this study is to answer the research question of how process patterns throughout the various stages of the catch-up cycle hinge on technological uncertainty. Based on observations of the manufacturing industries of general equipment, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and electronic device manufacturing in China, our findings reveal that the patterns differ in the early and late stages of the catch-up cycle, due to different technological uncertainties. We demonstrate the features of patterns in conjunction with the catch-up cycle: predictive or explanatory patterns as fundamental ones in the early stage; and convergent and divergent hybrid modes comprised of the aforementioned fundamental patterns in the late stage. Our results provide fresh insights into the catch-up process literature and offer valuable practical implications for latecomers.