Shaking Legitimacy: The Impact of Earthquakes on Conflict in Historical China
利用中国历史数据，研究发现地震（尤其是仅能感知而无物质损害的轻微震动）作为合法性负面冲击，会引发更多冲突，并探讨其是否作为协调机制克服集体行动问题。
Abstract This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.