Hot hand or choking under pressure – Evidence from professional basketball
利用NBA常规赛和季后赛罚球数据，发现存在热手效应，且观众压力会降低罚球命中率，支持热手谬误和压力下失常假说。
Abstract This paper examines the existence of a hot hand and whether performing in front of a supportive audience creates a psychological pressure, which may impair performance. Using the task of free throwing in basketball competitions involving National Basketball Association (NBA) regular season and playoff games, I find strong evidence of a hot hand and a negative causal effect of the spectators on the probability of a successful shoot. The results support the hot hand fallacy and are in line with the hypothesis of choking under pressure when performing skill‐based tasks. Furthermore, contrary to what would be expected given the evidence in favor of a choking phenomenon, the effect of star players is insignificant. The hot hand effects for stars and non‐stars are the same in direction. Finally, efforts increase the performance, and the influence of hot hands and choking are not different between home and away shootings.