Selective Mortality and the Long‐Term Effects of Early‐Life Exposure to Natural Disasters
研究菲律宾早期台风暴露的影响，发现1960年代救灾增加前，子宫内暴露导致死亡率上升但幸存者人力资本未受损；救灾增加后死亡率下降但幸存者长期人力资本降低。
Abstract We analyze the effects of early‐life shocks in the Philippines and find that in utero exposure to severe typhoons is associated with adverse outcomes. We exploit variations in typhoon exposure and sharp increases in short‐term disaster relief efforts in the 1960s. Before the increase in disaster relief efforts, in utero exposure to severe typhoons was associated with higher mortality (a 9% reduction in cohort size); survivors exhibited similar levels of human capital as the unaffected. After the increase in disaster relief, the mortality effects were mitigated; however, survivors exhibited lower human capital in the long term. We offer suggestive evidence that the observed changes in adverse long‐term effects are due to the relief efforts' effectiveness in increasing survival probability.