Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
通过随机对照试验，比较了关于未来利率的前瞻指引和通胀沟通对美国家庭通胀和抵押贷款利率预期的因果影响，发现利率信息对预期影响有限，而抵押贷款利率信息更能改变实际利率感知并影响耐用品购买。
Abstract We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households’ expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about inflation in a randomized control trial using more than 20,000 U.S. consumers in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We elicit consumers’ expectations, and then provide 22 different forms of information regarding past, current, and/or future interest rates and inflation. Information treatments about current or future interest rates all have similar and offsetting effects on interest rate and inflation expectations, yielding limited pass-through into perceived real rates. Information about mortgage rates has much more powerful effects on interest rate perceptions, with no offsetting effects on inflation expectations, thereby delivering much larger changes in perceived real rates. Revisions in perceived real rates causally lead to changes in the ex-post purchases of durable goods by households.