Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010
本文构建了英国1700年至2010年的商业周期年表，发现周期时长和幅度随时间显著增加，衰退频率降低但持续性和代价不变，典型衰退呈勾形，主要诱因是部门冲击、金融危机和战争。
Abstract This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions have become less frequent but are as persistent and costly as at other times in history. Third, the typical recession has been tick‐shaped with a short contraction and longer recovery. Finally, the major causes of downturns have been sectoral shocks, financial crises, and wars.