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通过欺诈性选举结束内战

Ending civil wars through fraudulent elections

Oxford Economic Papers · 2023
被引 1
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究发现,在内战僵局后的选举中,不受欢迎的执政者实施选举欺诈反而可能促进和平,国际社会防止欺诈的努力可能增加内战持续的风险。

Abstract

Abstract Previous research finds a positive association between electoral fraud and post-election protests, violence, and civil conflict. This article contends that the effect of electoral fraud on peace can be heterogeneous. I investigate elections after civil wars that stalemated. My contribution is to present a theory and suggestive evidence that, in this context, electoral fraud by unpopular incumbents can be peace-promoting. An important policy implication is that international efforts to prevent electoral fraud (e.g. electoral observers), in this specific setting, may increase the odds that a civil war continues.

内战选举欺诈和平与冲突政治经济学