When Is a Contrarian Adviser Optimal?
比较了逆向与顺从型专家建议的优劣,发现专家最优性取决于先验信息和学习特征;当信息可验证或仅能获取粗略信息时,逆向者更优。
We compare contrarian to conformist advice, a contrarian expert being one whose preference bias is against the decision-maker’s prior optimal decision. Optimality of an expert depends on characteristics of prior information and learning. If either the expert is fully informed or fine information can be acquired cheaply, then for symmetric distributions F of the state, a conformist (contrarian) is superior if F is single peaked (bimodal). If only coarse information can be acquired, then a contrarian acquires more on average and hence is superior. If information is verifiable, a contrarian has less incentive to hide unfavorable evidence and again is superior.