Political Risk, Populism and the Economy
研究了2008至2019年间意大利、西班牙等五国政治风险冲击对金融和实体经济的影响，发现不利冲击会损害国内金融市场，并在部分国家产生溢出效应，其中意大利的民粹主义相关冲击影响更大。
Abstract We study the financial and real effects of political risk shocks for Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece between 2008 and 2019. We build an instrument for these shocks using the changes of the sovereign yield spread around political and policy dates, and estimate their effects in the context of local projection. We show that adverse political risk shocks have negative effects on domestic financial markets and in some countries generate spillovers on the spreads of other eurozone economies. Moreover, in Italy populism-related political risk shocks have a larger effect on financial markets and they harm the real economy.