Strategic Asset Allocation and Inflation Resilience
指出标准模拟方法在建模通胀动态和股票-债券相关性方面的不足,并提出一种简单方法将这些特征融入现有模拟引擎,帮助资产配置者应对通胀风险。
Inflation risk poses a significant challenge to strategic asset allocators and is forcing many to reevaluate the suite of quantitative tools they use. In particular, standard simulation methods are inadequate for modeling inflation dynamics and do not generate uncertainty in long-term average inflation. Furthermore, despite low-frequency regime switching between negative and positive stock–bond correlation regimes, linked to inflation dynamics, standard methods do not incorporate this either. Finally, when markets are undergoing long-term structural changes, modeling choices should be able to integrate the forward-looking expectations of subject matter experts on joint economic and market dynamics. This article describes a simple way of retrofitting these features to an existing simulation engine.