Carbon emissions and sustainability in Covid-19’s waves: evidence from a two-state dynamic Markov-switching regression (MSR) model
研究新冠疫情导致全球碳排放下降后，投资者是否预期碳排放会反弹，使用两状态动态马尔可夫转换回归模型分析投资者信念与碳排放的关系。
Throughout the world, carbon emissions have decreased in an unprecedented way as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a rebound effect in carbon emissions is anticipated following the extraction of information related to the beliefs of investors. A suitable Markov switching model is used in this paper to adapt the safe haven financial methodology to an environmental sustainability perspective. Analytically, the aforementioned situation is modeled by estimating a two-state dynamic Markov-Switching Regression (MSR), with a state-dependent intercept term to capture the dynamics of the series, across unobserved regimes. In light of the results of the research and the robustness checks, investors are anticipating a rebound effect on the total quantity of carbon emissions.