How Transitory Is Inflation?
分析了14个发达经济体过去半个世纪中通胀飙升后的持续时间，发现通胀回归正常水平所需时间远超多数人预期，美联储的政策应对应反映通胀可能持续的高风险。
Across 14 developed-economy countries over the past half-century, the authors analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of inflation typically lingers. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. <italic>Transitory</italic> inflation is certainly possible, but it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Messaging and policy response from the US Federal Reserve Bank should reflect the relatively high empirical risk that inflation may persist.