需求拉动、技术推动与技术变革的方向

Demand-pull, technology-push, and the direction of technological change

RESEARCH POLICY · 2023
被引 46
人大 AFT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究了1977-2012年美国制造业中需求拉动和技术推动对增长、创新及技术变革要素偏向的影响,发现技术推动(尤其是上游产业)驱动增长和创新,而需求拉动偏向劳动。

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of Demand-pull (DP) and Technology-push (TP) on growth, innovation, and the factor bias of technological change in a two-layer network of input–output (market) and patent citation (innovation) links among 307 6-digit US manufacturing industries in 1977–2012. Two types of TP and DP are distinguished: (1) DP and TP are between-layer spillovers when market demand shocks pull innovation and innovation pushes market growth. (2) Within-layer DP arises if downstream users trigger upstream innovation and growth, while TP effects spill over from up- to downstream industries. The results support between- and within-layer TP: Innovation spillovers from upstream industries drive market growth and innovation. Within the market, upstream supply shocks stimulate growth, but this effect differs across industries. DP is not supported but shows a factor bias favoring labor, while TP comes with a shift towards non-production work. The results are strongest after the 2000s and shed light on the drivers of recent technological change and its factor bias.

产业组织技术创新投入产出专利引用制造业