Oil price uncertainty and the relation to tanker shipping
研究油价不确定性如何影响原油与波罗的海脏油轮指数收益的联动关系，发现两者负相关且在油价高波动期更显著，对航运和能源投资者有参考价值。
Abstract This article investigates whether time variation in the returns' co‐movement of oil and Baltic Dirty Tanker Index can be linked to oil market uncertainty. We measure uncertainty using a battery of different proxies considering both parametric and non‐parametric methods and study its role from both statistical and economic perspectives. Using a regression framework combined with regime switching analysis, we show that oil price uncertainty and the future correlation of oil and dirty‐tanker returns are negatively associated. This negative association is more pronounced in highly volatile periods. The identified regimes are directly linked to high‐low crude oil volatility periods with implications on the level of correlation they exhibit to oil returns. Results are robust across crudes and volatility measures. Additional robustness checks corroborate that results hold for individual dirty‐tanker routes and clean‐tanker cargoes.