Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households
基于德国消费者预期在线调查数据，提出一种定性测量宏观经济预期不确定性的新方法，该方法高效且成本低，可用于多种预期的不确定性测量。
Recently, much attention has been devoted to measuring macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of macroeconomic expectation uncertainty based on data from a German online survey of consumer expectations. The survey design works well. Elicited expectation uncertainty is related to data volatility and conventional measures of uncertainty as expected. Its dependency on socioeconomic factors is in line with previous evidence based on quantitative uncertainty measures. The new measure offers a very efficient way of eliciting expectation uncertainty and can be used to obtain uncertainty measures on many different expectations at a low cost.