International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa
估计了全球大宗商品价格对非洲48个国家消费者价格的传导效应，发现最大传导率为23%，长期传导率约20%，高于以往文献。传导率受人均GDP、消费结构、交通基础设施和贸易开放度影响。
Abstract In this paper, global commodity prices pass-through to consumer prices are estimated in Africa. The estimation sample includes monthly data for 48 countries over the period 2002m02–2021m04. Sixteen commodity prices are considered separately, rather than aggregate indices that use weights unrepresentative of consumption in Africa. Using local projections in a panel data set, the maximum estimated pass-through is of 23 percent, and the long-run pass-through is of about 20 percent, higher than usually found in the literature. Country-specific regressions are also considered: in the latter, the estimated pass-through is lower for countries with a higher GDP per capita, a lower share of food and energy in the consumption basket, a better quality of transport infrastructure, and a higher openness to trade. Finally, commodity-specific pass-throughs are correlated with the share of corresponding goods in the consumer basket and with the import dependency ratio for this commodity.