Downsizing the jet: A forecast of economic effects of increased automation in aviation
研究飞机最优规模理论，发现机组成本是大型飞机的主要驱动因素，乘客效用是小型飞机的主要驱动因素。通过反事实实验，分析将最低机组人数从两人减至一人对飞机需求、飞行员需求、客运量等的影响。
We develop a theory of optimal aircraft size, where the cost of the flight crew is the primary factor driving the use of larger aircraft, while passenger utility is primary factor driving the use of smaller aircraft. After fitting our model to U.S. data, we perform a counterfactual experiment where the minimum crew size requirement is relaxed from two pilots to one, a policy currently being discussed by aviation experts. Implications are derived for the number of aircraft demanded and its size distribution, demand for pilots, passenger traffic, flight frequency, and where new nonstop service may be introduced. • Aircraft size jumps by 5.7% to 7.5% when an additional relief pilot is required. • A theory of optimal aircraft size driven by scalable and non-scalable costs is developed. • A counterfactual experiment that relaxes the minimum crew size requirement from two pilots to one is performed. • Implications are derived for the number of aircraft demanded and its size distribution, demand for pilots, passenger traffic, flight frequency, and where new nonstop service may be introduced.