Missing data patterns in runners’ careers: do they matter?
研究分析了14年间男性中距离跑步者的年度最佳成绩数据，提出一种潜在类别矩阵变量状态空间模型，发现考虑缺失数据模式能提高对跑步者未来表现的预测准确性。
Abstract Predicting the future performance of young runners is an important research issue in experimental sports science and performance analysis. We analyse a dataset with annual seasonal best performances of male middle distance runners for a period of 14 years and provide a modelling framework that accounts for both the fact that each runner has typically run in 3 distance events (800, 1,500, and 5,000 m) and the presence of periods of no running activities. We propose a latent class matrix-variate state space model and we empirically demonstrate that accounting for missing data patterns in runners’ careers improves the out of sample prediction of their performances over time. In particular, we demonstrate that for this analysis, the missing data patterns provide valuable information for the prediction of runner’s performance.