Pandemic Recessions and Contact Tracing
研究在无症状传播和有限检测能力下，接触追踪策略如何因外部性导致社交互动扩张而失效，并发现及时配合社交距离或更严格隔离可纠正此问题，效果接近无限检测基准。
Abstract We study contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model with asymptomatic transmission and limited testing capacity. Contact tracing is a testing strategy that aims to reconstruct the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. This strategy may be unsuccessful because of an externality leading agents to expand their interactions at rates exceeding policymakers’ ability to test all the traced contacts. Complementing contact tracing with timely deployed containment measures (e.g., social distancing or a tighter quarantine policy) corrects this externality and delivers outcomes that are remarkably similar to the benchmark case where tests are unlimited. We provide theoretical underpinnings to the risk of becoming infected in macro-epidemiological models. Our methodology to reconstruct infection chains is not affected by curse-of-dimensionality problems.